Both industries will grow rapidly — from zero in 2020 — according to figures calculated for agency’s new 1.5°C scenario report

The transport and power sectors will consume almost half of the 614 million tonnes (Mt) of hydrogen that would be produced annually in 2050 in a 1.5°C scenario, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena).

Hydrogen use in both industries is currently negligible — not to mention controversial — with Irena putting their 2020 consumption at zero.

According to figures provided to Recharge by Irena, the largest demand for hydrogen by mid-century — 201.7Mt, or 32.9% — would come from the chemicals industry, as it is today. Irena splits this sector into ammonia (74.6Mt), methanol (74.1Mt) and “high-value chemicals” (53Mt) — a commonly used petrochemicals term referring to oil-derived ethylene and its by-products, such as propylene, benzene and toluene.

The power sector comes second with 172.1Mt, or 28%, even though green hydrogen — which Irena says will make up two thirds of the H2 consumed by mid-century — is produced from electricity in the first place. The round-trip efficiency of power-to-hydrogen-to-power is said to be somewhere between 25% and 40%, depending on the equipment used — meaning that 60-75% of the original electricity is lost when converting it to H2 and back again.

“[Hydrogen use in the power sector] would meet the need for flexibility and thermal generation to compensate for fluctuations in renewable energy and complement other flexibility measures,” says Irena in a new report, Global Hydrogen Trade to Meet the 1.5°C Climate Goal — Part 1: Trade Outlook for 2050 and Way Forward.

Irena tells Recharge that the modelling used to calculate the sector-by-sector hydrogen demand in the new report proved not to work for the power industry, so the 172.1Mt figure was extrapolated by adding up the new calculations made for the other sectors and subtracting that total from the global 2050 demand figure (ie, 614Mt) published in previous Irena studies.

The transport sector is the third-largest consumer of hydrogen in 2050, according to the figures, consuming 134.1Mt, or 21.8%, of the total.

“Towards 2050, the largest area of growth will be the transport sector. Uses for pure hydrogen to complement electricity arise in the road and rail sectors, in which use of ammonia for international shipping and synthetic fuels for international aviation are among the largest uses,” says the report.

Several commentators, such as the Hydrogen Science Coalition, believe that hydrogen should play no role in road transport as batteries offer a cheaper and more energy-efficient proposition. Irena itself states that batteries are a better option than hydrogen for cars and regional trucks, but it is on the fence for long-haul trucks

Irena splits the transport sector into six categories: road transport (57.8Mt), international shipping (40.5Mt), international aviation (13Mt), domestic shipping (8.6Mt), domestic aviation (8.5Mt), and rail (5.7Mt).

The remaining 17.3% of global hydrogen demand in 2050, under Irena’s 1.5°C scenario, comes from direct-reduced iron in the steel industry (55Mt), buildings (ie, heating and direct use of hydrogen in fuel cells) (26.9Mt), and “other industries” such as cement and concrete (20.2Mt).

The figure for buildings seems quite bullish, considering that Irena believes that residential heating is the worst possible use case for hydrogen. As the new report states: “For some applications, like low- and mid-temperature heating or road transport, electrification is not only more efficient but more cost-effective and can lead to decarbonisation today with available technologies.”

Irena admits to Recharge that a chart in its new report — which shows the sector-by-sector hydrogen demand in 2050 but does not provide exact figures — mistakenly used an incorrect figure for “other industries”.

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